Will innovation make us better?

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Last year, Apple’s share price is

AAPL
surpassed Bitcoin, and Teslas

TSLA
The share price previously associated with Bitcoin has been far more volatile (in the past two years there have been 29 daily moves of more than 10% compared to just 17 for Bitcoin).

These findings raise many questions about how the market works, investor appetites, and simply whether Bitcoin is old and boring now. There is a debate that bitcoin, rather than a risky asset across broad asset classes (bonds, stocks, etc.) writing this note nods to the former.

More importantly, Bitcoin has gone out of style and is being replaced by other rapid innovations in the mindset of investors. Remember the memorable line from a Davos speech by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in which he said: “The pace of change has never been so fast, but it will never be so slow again”.

Exponentially

The spirit of this phrase has been captured by the predictions of futurologists, economists, and thinkers over many years. Having made my own pre-Christmas predictions, I have the benefit of sitting back and reading others, a great example being Azeem Azar’s weekly “Exponential” email and a growing number of other notes trying to summarize what’s bubbling right now.

It is noticeable that there is a strong sense of the “roaring 20’s” in the structural trends that analysts see after a pandemic. First and foremost is the focus on nuclear power as a substitute for fossil fuels, not to mention the entire greentech complex.

If the forecasts and food for thought mentioned are a good representation of where the capital will flow, then a new, exciting infrastructure will be built – in IT, logistics and finance, to name just a few sectors that happen to be united by the data intensity. I could say that the only value of an asset bubble after experiencing the Dot.com bubble is that it leaves behind important infrastructure (telecommunications in this case).

MetaVerse

My three main takeaways from analyzing many reports are that, while the central message of the new emerging technologies is exciting, they will lead to a historic and potentially overwhelming challenge for humanity, and especially our minds and societies, and potentially very powerful ones health benefits.

Without exaggerating, I believe that 2022 will be a threshold year in which innovative technologies will make our bodies healthier, but invade our mental spaces.

To begin with, to name a collection of the most popular trends, they are grouped around Web 3.0, NFTs, Metaverse, social media and cryptocurrencies. That brutally means that we will all be spending more time out of the light, hunched over phones, doubting whether the people and things we encountered in the Metaverse are real at all and whether it is worth spending $ 10,000 in one Metaverse to invest in apartment.

This trend is historical because for the first time and only with the power of religion (and perhaps politics) as a rival, people will spend time and experience in an unreal world, and for some this will dominate their existence. Two very obvious side effects will be sociability and mental health.

Quantum

I noted in previous bulletins that mental health needs to become a central pillar of health service reshaping, and the metaverse may be the trigger (ironically, it’s used to help soldiers overcome post-traumatic stress disorder).

On the positive side, the tremendous advances in medicine and health technology – many of them spurred by the coronavirus crisis – will have a positive impact on people – provided that at least two factors exist that the abundance of these advances can be as widespread as possible and that the way they are delivered is rethought in the sense that health systems need to change.

One inspiration here and my second point is the increasing attention that technologies like blockchain are paying to decentralized autonomous organizations – effectively organizations that are led by encrypted relationships between disparate parties as opposed to a centralized or even hierarchical bureaucracy (i.e. health systems). . While it is far-fetched to imagine that today’s healthcare systems and other institutional arrangements can be quickly replaced by decentralized forms, blockchain can do a lot to reduce those bureaucracies (closer relationships between doctors, patients, billing companies and other parties like pharmacists) .

DAO

A third related threshold change in technological influence that is receiving a lot of attention and capital is quantum computing (70% of investments at startup level in technical hardware flow into quantum computing projects). Governments, too, especially China and the European Union, spend a lot on it. In short, quantum computing is revolutionary as it uses different arrangements of “bits” to achieve more powerful processing. While quantum computing doesn’t have many uses yet, it has the ability to dramatically change aspects of healthcare, finance, and industry such as chemistry.

Having seen historic, positive changes as a result of the pandemic – the general patience and obedience of the world population, the acceptance of homeworking, and the power of vaccines – we are now crossing a threshold in terms of how technology will transform our bodies , as well as our minds and the way we deal with the world.

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