Netflix is ââlooking to be more strategic as it directs its cash stream towards zippy, star-driven productions designed to delight its legions of global subscribers. This means that his budget endeavors must exceed certain audience (and quality controls) measures to be considered a success. That’s what Dwayne Johnson, Ryan Reynolds, and Gal Gadots do Red note, publishes such a fascinating case study on Friday November 12th.
The $ 200 million blockbuster is Netflix’s most expensive film to date. As the investment for each studio increases, so does the required rate of return. Let’s go through the data to see if or not Red notice lived up to the hype.
In a new pursuit of transparency, Netflix revealed the Rawson Marshall Thurber-directed movie was # 1 on its global top 10 movie list. was 148.72 million Hours viewed worldwide from November 8th to November 11th. 14. The Heist film ranked # 1 in more than 90 countries and earned Netflix Film what it claims to be the best opening weekend of all time. (It was so popular, Netflix claims, that fans of The Rock then spent 6.76 million hours watching Jumanji: The next levelwhich made it to number 10 on the new weekly updated list).
Hours viewed can measure engagement, but are also influenced by runtime. It’s not a perfect reflection of popularity as it favors longer titles. Ideally, Netflix would also list the completion rate, percentage of subscribers who viewed content, and more. But it’s up to big streaming services to keep their review data as nebulous as possible.
Still, this gives us an apples to apples comparison for the top 10 greatest Netflix original movies. Here are the streamer’s most viewed original films in terms of hours viewed within the first 28 days of availability:
- Bird feeder (282 million)
- extraction (231 million)
- The Irishman (215 million)
- The kissing booth 2 (209 million)
- 6 subway (205 million)
- Spenser confidential (197 million)
- Enola Holmes (190 million)
- Army of the Dead (187 million)
- The old guard (186 million)
- Thriller (170 million)
After just a weekend Red notice is already on the heels of the top 10. That’s good news for Netflix’s bean counters. Although Ampere Analysis found out, exclusive streaming features leave minimal cultural footprints and are met with rapidly declining interest after the debut.
Most Netflix Originals generate the majority of their watched hours in the first two weeks overall. That is likely to be a significant drop, as the average streaming movie is losing 63% viewers per day from week 1 through week 2, according to Nielsen data. Think of it as streaming in parallel with the important second weekend checkout drop. We have to check in next week to see if Red notice performed on average, exceeded or not challenged expectations.
Red notice is part of a Netflix push to develop franchise IP that works on the Disney model, although evidence suggests that the streaming content is best suited to creating lasting cultural impact, TV series rather than movies. There may be a cap on Netflix’s ability to compose a library of franchise movie IP, but Red notice has what it takes to be a new franchise based on initial interest.
Samba TV measures selected smart TVs with automatic content detection. That makes up 28 million devices in the US. According to the extrapolation data from Samba 4.2 million US households watched Red notice when streaming for the first time this weekend on Netflix. This is the best opening weekend for any streaming movie in Samba’s record that started in late 2020.
- Red notice (4.2 million)
- Mortal Kombat (3.8 million)
- Godzilla vs. Kong (3.6 million)
- The suicide squad (2.8 million)
- Without regrets (2.6 million)
- The harder they fall (2.5 million)
- soul (2.4 million)
- The war of tomorrow (2.4 million)
- Wonder Woman 1984 (2.2 million)
- Space Jam: A New Legacy (2.1 million)
Context, however, is the big balance in Hollywood’s battle for eyeballs and attention spans. Netflix is ââthe largest television network in the world with the ability to deliver Red notice to 74 million UCAN subscribers (USA and Canada) at once. Meanwhile, HBO and HBO Max combined have 45.2 million domestic subscribers, while Disney + has gained between 40 million and 50 million UCAN subscribers. As Netflix’s most marketed film with the biggest cake of potential viewers, Red notice is, of course, positioned to beat established highs.
That helps too Red notice is a direct streaming release as opposed to a day and date title which is also available in theaters. Still, in Hollywood, claiming first place in a spectator competition is seldom a disadvantage.
Measuring viewership in the modern media age can feel like a blindfolded cast. Different services use different metrics, while studios publish selective data that is optimized to hit the headlines. Netflix has stated Red noticeThe opening weekend is the biggest of all time, but the service doesn’t allow outside sources to verify these numbers. So, Diesel Labs predictive content analytics platform looked at the audience retention trends on the movie’s premiere weekend and compared it to other high profile SVOD releases to provide another data point.
If you look at the trend line of audience loyalty on the premiere weekend, Red notice closely with other SVOD-only releases (soul, Army of the Dead, The war of tomorrow).
While viewership is the most important metric when it comes to title performance, the limited engagement around a release suggests that “the title in question isn’t doing as much ‘heavy lifting’ as it could be,” said Anjali Midha, co-founder and Diesel Labs CEO. “Breakthrough with the audience and increasing the value (or FOMO!) Of subscribers for the services they subscribe to is critical.”
Midha argues that within the multi-faceted streaming wars, content measurement should include “audience behavior in relation to both viewer and conversation vectors”. Netflix is ââa must-have service with the lowest churn rate among premium SVOD players. But in general, programs on streaming services that don’t grab the audience’s attention or strengthen their position in the cultural zeitgeist will have a hard time selling the perception as must-have subscriptions.
Reelgood is a comprehensive streaming guide that tracks every TV show and movie available online and serves as a search engine for SVOD libraries. The service has more than 2 million US users, which helps provide a composition of domestic digital viewership based on user interest.
Despite low values ââfor Rotten Tomatoes (35 percent), Metacritic (37/100) and IMDb (6.5 / 10) Red notice was the most watched film available on US streaming platforms on the opening weekend, according to Reelgood. It helps that it was the biggest streaming and cinema re-release in that period. But if Hollywood is increasingly turning to early box office openings for profit, it’s only natural for streaming blockbusters to follow suit.
- Red notice
- Shang-Chi and the legend of the ten rings
- Jungle cruise
- The harder they fall
- The electrical life of Louis Wain
- Army of thieves
Dwayne Johnson claimed two of Reelgood’s top three most-viewed films as of the past weekend Red notice fallen on Netflix and Jungle cruise finally debuted on Disney +. Unsurprisingly, The Rock remains a mainstream draw.
Whip Media’s TV Time tracks the US audience share among streaming services. TV Time is a global community of 19 million users with 2.5 million daily users who watch TV series and films.
Whip Media found that Red notice was the second most popular movie streamed last weekend, behind Shang-Chi which reached Disney + in the US. It was the world’s most popular film, streamed last weekend.
According to TV Time users, the audience rating in the US alone and worldwide was 4.1 stars (out of 5). Compared to an average rating of 2.7 for action movies in the US in 2021 and an average rating of 3.6 for Netflix publications in the US in 2021 worldwide, that 4.1 audience rating is also better than the average rating of 2.9 for Action Movies 2021 and 3.6 audience rating for all Netflix releases in 2021.
Red notice‘s poor critical reception likely dampened the social chatter about the film. We’ll see how much Netflix weights this element here; The streamer previously declined to do a sequel for 6 subway for quality reasons despite high audience numbers. Yet in terms of the raw reaction, Red notice made an explosive debut for Netflix and is well on its way to becoming its most watched original film.
Movie Math is a chair analysis of Hollywood’s strategies for big new releases.